From twttr to Twitter, it’s been a phenomenal journey for Jack Dorsey. In that rebranding, the product perfectly epitomises how
communication has changed from text messaging in the early 2000s to applications such as WhatsApp or via apps using data instead of SMS.
The birth and rise of Twitter
Twitter, or twttr, as it was known initially began with a limit of 140 character derived from the SMS character limit of 160. Since conventional cellular telephony splits a message after 160 characters, twttr, set a character limit of 140 to ensure tweets aren’t split. That was way back in 2006. Three years prior to the creation of WhatsApp.
https://twitter.com/jack/status/20
That was 22 March, 2006. A little over 10 years later, Twitter is at another stage of its lifecycle. There are mixed signals from the industry, the investor community and the online space as a whole. Between 2006 and 2009, Twitter was still dormant. A service that existed, some heard, few used it. It was closer to 2009 that Twitter truly emerged as a mainstream tool for online communication.
As mentioned above, that’s clearly when WhatsApp was born. 2009 is the year when data was preferred over conventional voice and text from a consumer’s point of view. The rise of Twitter and the birth of WhatsApp hint at the changing patterns of communication. But it began to rise in popularity after celebrities took to it. This was after a few popular instances got the media’s attention, and reporters began to use information on Twitter in their reportage. The subsequent years saw Twitter swell up in users and conversations.
The changing landscape of digital communication
The world’s largest social network – Facebook – was founded on 4 February, 2004. Just two years prior to Twitter. In 2009, a 5-year old Facebook had managed to establish itself as the most popular online social network. It hit the 500 million user mark a year later in 2010. In two years, it filed an IPO with the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States. It sought $5 billion but raised $16 billion, making it the third most subscribed IPO in US history.
With the IPO behind it, Facebook focussed on growth, and subsequently went on an acquisition spree. It began by acquiring FriendFeed in 2009, and post-IPO acquired about 10 companies on an average each year since 2012. Prominent acquisitions include Instagram, Oculus and WhatsApp. Facebook also significantly increased its focus on advertising as a means to generate returns for investors.
Why did Twitter miss out?
A little over a year ago, Dick Costolo quit as Twitter CEO. The numbers weren’t looking very good. That’s practically the short reason why he quit. Back then, as per investor announcements from Twitter, average monthly active users increased 18 percent year-on-year. Turns out that wasn’t good enough. Investors were growing impatient with Dick Costolo’s for not being able to turn Twitter services and offerings into revenue streams. The emphasis on revenue caused many investors to hound Twitter.
It’s also interesting how Chris Sacca, a Twitter investor, said Twitter can and will be huge. That was a year ago. Today, he’s selling Twitter stock. All of this points at investor’s waning trust in Twitter ability to get them returns on investment.
If we compare stock performance of Twitter and Facebook over the past 2 years, the message is loud and clear. Facebook grew 170 percent, compared to Twitter which declined 40 percent. Among investor circles, a fall over 10 percent is reason to quit. However, if a stock drops by 40 percent, it needs to rise by 82 percent to breakeven.
Why is Salesforce so eager to buy Twitter?
When I tracked reports and updates around acquisitions, I find it uncanny that Salesforce was in the race to buy LinkedIn. But lost out to Microsoft. Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce, once said there would be no Salesforce.com without Steve Jobs. He’s the same guy who gave Apple the App Store trademark and domain as a means to return the favour.
Salesforce is currently in a growth phase with an appetite for strategic acquisitions. Online sentiment did suggest it made sense for Salesforce to buy Twitter. After expressing a deep interest in buying Twitter, Benioff seems to be on the fence now.
We’ll have to wait and watch how Twitter emerges out of this phase. The numbers and data available in the public domain hint at it being a deadweight for an investment.
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